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A new modelling has been presented in Melbourne today by an epidemiologist from The Australian National University which states that current predictions of the future incidence of asbestos-related disease have been substantially underestimated.
According to the analysis by Dr Mark Clements, from the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, and colleagues, the peak number of cases of mesothelioma will occur four years later and the future total incidence may be in excess of 35 per cent higher than existing models would have predicted. Mesothelioma is a benign (noncancerous) or malignant (cancerous) tumor affecting the lining of the chest or abdomen. Exposure to asbestos particles in the air increases the risk of developing malignant mesothelioma. Symptoms of this incurable disease are persistent coughing or coughing of blood, chest or abdomen pain, fatigue, and weight loss.
"The pattern for mesothelioma reflects changes in asbestos exposure and therefore reflects predictions for all asbestos-related diseases," said Dr Clements, "Although more detailed work is needed to properly integrate other factors related to the actuarial implications, these early results have important implications for asbestos-related disease liability schemes."
The peak of mesothelioma cases had been expected in 2010 according to an existing model developed by the auditing firm KPMG. As per their estimate, 3530 cases can be expected for New South Wales men. However, Dr. Clements claims that their own epidemiological model shows that the peak will occur as late as 2017 and see 6430 cases of asbestos-related diseases in NSW men.
“There is reasonable evidence that the peak of mesothelioma incidence is later than 2010. This has far reaching consequences for actuarial predictions, where the number of cases out to 2060 may be in excess of 35 per cent higher than the number predicted by KPMG’s model,” Dr. Clements said, “It is unclear why the two models give different results. The KPMG modeling may have been influenced by a common belief that peak incidence would be in 2010; in contrast, our epidemiological model is able to predict the peak for incidence.”
“Although these results have implications for liability, there are several steps between predicting mesothelioma incidence and calculating liability. Moreover, modelling would be required for other asbestos-related diseases," He added.
Dr Clements said it's worrying to see that the the liability was under-estimated. "I can’t speculate as to the revised level of liability. However based on our modelling of future mesothelioma incidence it’s worrying that the liability may have been under-estimated,” he said.
The paper was presented at the Accident Compensation Seminar, hosted by the Institute of Actuaries of Australia, in Melbourne.
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